U.S. Mexico Fuel Switching Demonstration: Current Status and ...

U.S. Mexico Fuel Switching Demonstration: Current Status and ...

Implementation of the North American Emission Control Area in the United States: Lessons Learned for a Mexican ECA Angela Bandemehr U.S. EPA Office of International and Tribal Affairs Long Beach, California December 12, 2016 WHAT IS AN ECA? An ECA puts in place stringent standards for ship emissions (SOx, NOx, PM) ECAs can be established under the Air Pollution Annex of the International Maritime Organizations Convention on the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Annex VI) MARPOL Annex VI also establishes global standards that are much less stringent

ECAs provide substantially more public health benefits than MARPOL Annex VI WHY ECAS ARE IMPORTANT Ships use some of dirtiest fuel This is why such benefits are seen from ECA clean fuel standards The global fuel limit is 3.5% sulfur (35,000 ppm sulfur) Cars use 15 ppm sulfur fuel in US

ECA: 2012: 1% sulfur (10,000 ppm) 2015: 0.1% sulfur AIR POLLUTION IS A SEVERE HUMAN HEALTH PROBLEM: RECOGNIZED GLOBALLY Findings WHO: air pollution is the worlds largest single environmental health risk and caused almost 15% of all deaths in 2012 Ranks as the 8th leading cause of deaths worldwide Heart disease, strokes, lung cancer and other illnesses Global commitments 2014 UN resolution on air pollution

2015 World Health Assembly resolution on air pollution SHIPS ARE MAJOR SOURCE OF AIR POLLUTANTS NORTH AMERICAN SHIPPING ROUTES IN 2012 TRAFFIC IS PROJECTED TO GROW IN THE FUTURE Source: University College London; Kiln; IMO Third GHG Study 2015 Mexican ship traffic projected to increase by 50-200% by 2030 Percent change (increase) in energy use and/or CO2 emissions attributed to growth in shipping within the Mexican modeling T o t a l M o b ile S o u r c e P M 2 .5 E m is s io n s Why the US has an ECA:

Ship Emissions in a No Action Scenario SHIP EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO OTHER MOBILE SOURCE PM2.5 EMISSIONS IN U.S. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 52% 83%

All other mobile sources OGV Marine 48% 17% 2009 2030 Source of inventory estimates: C3 Marine NPRM (July, 2009) Does not reflect IMO MARPOL Annex VI Amendments (October 2008) WHY THE USA HAS AN ECA

MARPOL Annex VI global controls are necessary but not sufficient ECAs require cleaner fuels and lower emission standards Prefer to meet domestic air quality goals with an ECA Consistent standards across all U.S. ports and internationally U.S. EMISSION CONTROL AREAS North American ECA US becomes party to

MARPOL Annex VI: January 8, 2009 NA ECA proposed by US/approved by IMO: July 2009 Adopted by IMO: March 26, 2010 Entry-into-force: August 1, 2011 Enforcement: August 1, 2012 U.S. Caribbean 2020 PROJECTED ECA PM2.5 REDUCTIONS

2020 PROJECTED ECA OZONE REDUCTIONS AIR QUALITY GAINS FROM MARINE FUEL SULFUR STANDARDS Results from US west, east and Gulf coast air quality monitoring shows average 74% reduction in ambient PM2.5 levels These reductions are definitively linked to the use of cleaner marine fuels required by California and the NA ECA These reductions reflect air quality data collected before and after the switch to 0.1 % sulfur ECA fuels You cannot get such results from emission controls on land-based

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ECA IN THE USA AIR QUALITY GAINS FROM MARINE FUEL SULFUR STANDARDS Percent change in annual average PM2.5 from marine vessel RFO combustion From pre-NA-ECA (2010-2011 to NA-ECA 0.1% S (2015) Kotchenruther, 2017 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ECA IN THE USA OVERALL APPROACH US Coast Guard (USCG) is lead for vessels verify compliance with Annex VI/ECA during vessel exams EPA is lead for protection of human health and air quality Coast Guard and EPA are jointly: Enforcing the ECA Developing a vessel fuel sampling program Coordinating with Canada and the EU on enforcement

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ECA IN THE USA FUEL AVAILABILITY We are seeing good compliance with fuel requirements Compliant fuel is available in US and most regions globally 90 80 80 # of Reports 70 60 50 40

30 20 10 0 33 21 9 7 9 6 6 6

8 10 6 13 11 3 1 HIGH LEVEL COMMITMENT TO WORKING WITH MEXICO ON AN ECA Environment Ministers endorse

projects under Commission for Environmental Cooperation Phase I ECA 2014-1015: technical analyses Phase II ECA 2016 2017: IMO proposal Fuel Sulfur Enforcement 20162017: exchange lessons learned in North America Presidential-level commitment made at the North American Leaders Summit (June 2016) We are committed [] to work together EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS WITH A MEXICAN ECA MUCH GREATER THAN WITH GLOBAL MARPOL FUEL STANDARD NOx

SOx PM BC 2030 no MX ECA + MARPOL Annex VI 12,738,00 1,472,000 0 208,000 6,200 2030 with MX ECA + MARPOL Annex

VI 2,372,000 289,000 60,000 1,800 148,000 4,400 Emissions Avoided 10,366,00 1,183,000 (tonnes) 0 Emissions Avoided 80% 80% 70%

(%) Source: EPA-160-R-15-001, May 2015 70% COST-BENEFIT OF AN ECA Estimated Benefits in 2030 Average prevented premature deaths Average Health Cost Benefits Benefit to Cost Ratio US

Mexico 21,000 20,000 $ 190 billion 60:1 $ 58 billion 20:1 MARPOL Annex VI provides flexibility for SUPPLY OF ECA COMPLIANT FUEL every member State FOR A MEXICAN

MARPOL Annex VI ECA Regulation 18.1: Parties shall take all reasonable steps to promote the availability of fuel oils Phase I of CEC Mexico ECA project found that clean fuel demand associated with a Mexican ECA will be met by the global marine fuel refining and distribution SUPPLY OF ECA COMPLIANT FUEL FOR A MEXICAN ECA Sales of fuels 2007-2014

Data source: PEMEX Mexico is a very minor provider of marine fuels to the global shipping sector Mexicos production of heavy marine fuel (IFO) is small and decreasing The global marine fuel sector will adapt and provide for the needs of a potential Mexican ECA

LESSONS LEARNED Build on Mexicos existing MARPOL Port State Control regime to enforce MARPOL Annex VI Fuel sampling is an easy and definitive way to determine compliance One year grace period between entry into force and enforceability of the ECA allows for preparations BENEFITS TO MEXICO OF

AN ECA Without an ECA, increased shipping traffic will increase pollutant levels Reduces PM2.5, sulfur dioxide, ozone levels Improved air quality Fewer deaths and illnesses SUMMARY Because ships have high pollutant emissions compared to other sources, such high emissions

reductions and health gains are hard to obtain with other sources Tremendous health benefits of an ECA, more protective than global standards Good experiences in the US implementing the NA ECA US lessons learned are

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