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Developing MRV for NAMA- experiences from CDM African Regional Workshop on NAMA Establishing NAMAs as a robust instrument for pre and post 2020 climate actions 17-19 August, 2015 Kigali, Rwanda 1 MRV Objectives Provide a credible and transparent approach for quantifying and reporting GHG emission reductions and SD benefits Ensure: deliver real, permanent, additional and verified mitigation outcomes avoid double counting of effort Achieve: A net decrease of GHG emissions (reductions below BAU) Sustainable development goals

A robust MRV system will facilitate access to international climate finance ( e.g., result/output based financing) attract donors ensure sustainable operation of mitigation actions Why MRV ? MRV of NAMAs is an international requirement under the UNFCCC (e.g., reporting under NCs, BURs) Such reporting is important at an international level in order to assess progress toward meeting the goal of keeping the increase in temperature below 20C. Application of MRV standards Comparability of mitigation outcome across developing countries 3

Focus of this presentation MRV aspects of GHG/non-GHG impacts MRV framework using and building on CDM MRV elements (e.g., baseline setting, monitoring of ERs) Case study- Improving electricity access as NAMA 4 Context: Rural electrification rate in Africa Many countries (>40) well below 50% Source- (IEA, 2014) 5 Energy access issue a perspective Access to modern energy strongly correlated with those of the Human Development Index (life expectancy, education, per-capita

GDP and other standard-of-living indicators at the national level) Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 6 Energy access issue a perspective Residential electricity consumption in New York and subSaharan Africa Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Addressing energy access a potential NAMA High potential in terms of GHG and SD impacts: 1.3 billion people (18%) world-wide live without access to electricity. More than 620 million (~50%) without access to electricity live in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and more than 80 percent of them live in rural area. Low income coupled with inefficient/carbon intensive and costly forms of energy supply make energy affordability a critical issue.

Source: World Energy Outlook (2014), International Energy Agency Electricity to 1.3 billion populations would reduce roughly 1.2 billion tCO2 over a period of 10 years. Eqv to annual emissions ( energy related) of total whole Africa, Japan, and Total Non-OECD Americas Transformational impacts ( long term development benefits) such as improving livelihoods (health, education, income), and energy security 8 Energy access programmes in Africa are catching up due to many vital reforms - PoAs - Standardized baselines - Suppressed demand - Default emission factors

- Positive list - Standard for sampling and surveys Source: UNEP/DTU PoA Pipeline 2/23/20 9 Case Study (Country A) Rural electrification Electricity Access: Total population: 13 million % of population electrified in end of 2014: a) Urban: 90% b) Rural : 30% 70% population (9.1 million) live in rural area. About 6.4 million people in rural areas live without access to electricity

Energy supply situation: Grid energy mix: 84% Coal; 4% Gas; and 12% Hydro Diesel generator is common for off-grid electricity supply Kerosene lamps, paraffin candles are common for lighting in areas with no access to grid/off-grid Farmers have limited access to water sources (no-water pumping system) and relying on rain-fed crops - face unreliable and erratic rainfall-low production/productivity. Large renewable energy potential untapped Case Study Community electrification NAMA NAMA Target: Policy makers set ambitious NAMA target aligning with national development goal to double rural electrification rate to 60% by 2018. Additional 3.1 million rural population to be electrified by 2018 This would require 620,000 new connections Target Group:

Rural communities including households, irrigation pumps and SMMEs/Institutions not connected to a regional/national grid Case Study Rural Electrification NAMA Institutional arrangement: To make electricity access affordable: the country has devised an innovative electrification program at concessional rates harnessing private and public sector finance from domestic and overseas sources. Example Gov supported MFIs through national/international sources offering grants, or by offering partial credit guarantees or loans at below-market interest rates that enable access to finance for last-mile consumers NAMA with boundaries covering the entire geographic area of the country has been devised and CME to manage the electrification

program in the country blending sources of finance Case Study Assessment of possible technology options (for NAMA intervention) Use of clean and efficient technologies is cost effective as compared to traditional systems Source: UN Foundation (2014) Case Study Assessment of possible technology options (for NAMA intervention) the cost of grid extension beyond certain distance becomes prohibitive, tipping the balance in favour of off-grid systems Source: Source: World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2014) Case Study Assessment of possible technology options (for NAMA intervention):

Consideration of range of factors that potentially affect the choice of grid and off-grid options to meet the electrification needs Source: UNDP (2014) Case Study Selection of technology options (for NAMA intervention) Technology options (grid /off-grid) are finally selected taking into account cost-effectiveness, users need (application, load demand) Source IRENA (2015) Case Study NAMA interventions The programme will electrify 620,000 rural households (HHs) by 2018 through: a) solar home systems and solar-powered lighting systems equally distributed to 334,473 HHs (54%) b) PV-Diesel hybrid mini-grid to 138,684 HHs (22%)

c) extensions of grids to 146,842 HHs (24%), Hydro and wind resources are not viable options- not economically exploitable PV-Diesel Hybrid System: Source IRENA (2015) Case Study Application of CDM methodologies The proposed NAMA will assess GHG impacts using recently approved integrated CDM methodology for rural electrification (AMSIII.BL) Methodology includes: Broad range of technology/measures Simplified and flexible monitoring procedures (metering, sample survey, deemed consumption ) Default value to account project emissions for electrification using grid extension Methodology predefine baseline and provide default emission factors to determine baseline emissions taking into account suppressed

demand scenario: a) Energy services available are insufficient to meet basic human needs ( e.g. have only a few kerosene lamps, or just use candles due to low income and lack of infrastructure) b) communities to leap-frog dirty technologies to a low or no-emitting clean efficient technology Case Study Application of CDM methodologies Baseline settings and baseline emissions: Displacement of carbon intensive lighting and electricity sources Default EF using tiered approach

based on consumption level and type of consumers Tiered emission factors: Tranche 1: [ECx < 55 kWh/year] = 6.8 kg CO2/kWh; Tranche 2: [55< ECy <250] = 1.3 kg CO2/kWh; Tranche 3: [ECz > 250] = 1.0 kg CO2/kWh. For ECk> 500kWh/y 1.0 kg CO2/kWh and no tranche applies. 19 Quantification of GHG impacts using CDM Potential annual emission reductions achieved per household per year through rural electrification programme: Component 1 (Solar home) : 0.51 t CO2 /HH

Component 2 (Solar portable lighting): 0.37 t CO2 /HH Component 3 ( Grid/mini-grid) : 0.26 tCO2 /HH Total average annual emission reductions achieved ~ 140 kt CO2/ year Source IRENA (2015) Case study- Sustainable development impact The implementation of the program contributes in: Access to modern and affordable lighting Improvement of services in health,

education and social institutions Economic growth- Enabling productive uses of electricity and Source IRENA (2015) income generating activities for example tourism projects, such as eco-lodges; agro-processing units, ice making units Increased Adaptive capacities: Regular access to water would allow farmers to improve productivity and diversify adding new cash-crops (e.g. tomato, onion, cabbage) that allow farmers to generate (higher) income Case Study MRV (GHG impact) Simplified and flexible monitoring options for determining electricity consumption

Option A. Metering (standard electric meter or pre-payment meter) Option B. Sample survey (stratified random sampling) using CDM tool Option C. Distribution metering and consumer numbers Option D. Deemed electricity consumption Use of advanced/innovative monitoring technology in off-grid applications emerging (smart phone apps, SMS surveys and cloud based technology

22 Case Study MRV (GHG impact) Flexibility of monitoring determined by consumer type Reporting of consumer numbers by type and project technology/ measure Reporting of consumers by type and monitoring option Consumer Type A I II III IV

X X X X Monitoring Option B C X X X X D X X X

N/A* 23 Case Study MRV (SD impact) Baseline SD scenario: Targeted population did not have access to electricity prior NAMA intervention SD indicators ( social, economy and environment) are selected and agreed for example with donor agency using: UNFCCC Sustainable Development Co-benefits Tool UNDP SD Evaluation Tool NAMA SD scenario and impact Id Parameter Baseline

NAMA ( for first reporting period) 1 Number of HHs electrified 0 50,000 2 Number of people electrified 0 250,000

3 Number health clinics electrified 0 1000 4 Number of schools electrified 0 1500 5

New income generating activities (SMMEs) 0 2500 24 MR(V) of GHG and SD Parameters-Complementary The level of precision and robustness with which GHG and SD impacts are quantified will depend upon the type, scale and scope of the NAMA as well as host country circumstances. Tier 1 Tiered approach Simplified monitoring

(e.g., % rural consumers electrified) Associated Co-benefits need monitoring Tier 2 Detailed monitoring (sampling, surveys, cross-checking, regular monitoring) Associated Co-benefits are implied Increasing Accuracy Implied co-benefits and not monitored : Reduce indoor pollution, Poverty reduction , Better learning conditions; Enhance productivity,

efficiency, business opportunities ; Job creation . Verification independent third party auditor ensures that a) the NAMA is operating as planned b) and that the measuring and reporting system is being implemented as planned. c) emissions reductions are real and measurable. Auditors are accredited entities( CDM DOEs or could be under another accreditation system acceptable to the host party or the NAMA donor(s) ) Verification occur anytime during the period of the NAMA intervention for reporting of results through BUR/National Communications and/or subject to the requirement by donor agencies 26

MRVing NAMA using CDM elements evolving ( Rice cultivation, industrial EE, rural electrification ) 27 CDM and its potential use for NAMA Areas of Synergy with NAMA CDM elements Country specificity -SB (sector wide) -Simplified meths with standardized elements (default baseline EF, suppressed demand, performance benchmark)

and -robust but simple/flexible monitoring including sampling - +200 unique meths MRV provisions Environmental Integrity 28 Use of CDM elements in mitigation activities Low Carbon Development Strategies Specific to national circumstances INDCs

Reduce costs for project developers NAMAs Projects Policies NAMA - implementation tool -> Achieve goal/target under INDC MRV system implemented for NAMA also act as MRV on achieving INDC Provide a reliable and transparent quantification of emissions by broad

segments of economy High environmental integrity due to conservativeness Simplify the MRV systems 29 THANK YOU! Janak Shrestha [email protected] UNFCCC secretariat, SDM programme EXTRA SLIDES

CDM MRV instrument- in a nutshell Is internationally accepted Has a fully operational assessment apparatus Environmental integrity Has accreditation system for third party validators/verifiers Has registry for issuing and tracking credits Is used across the world as the source of rules for mitigation activities Enjoys a unique political legitimacy 32 Aspects of MRV in NAMA context Several aspects of NAMAs can be MRVed for example MRV of: GHG and non-GHG (SD) impact Actions ( e.g., whether activities are implemented as planned ) Support ( e.g., finance/technolog/capacity building) Progress ( e.g., % of electricity generated from renewable sources,

% increased in clean energy access and reduced air pollution etc) Design/implementation of MRV and its rigour may depend upon the type of NAMAs Realizing objectives of NAMA through CDM Tools Governance / Accounting Structure and Institutional arrangements (centralized system ,registry & ITL , EB,DOE etc.) Identification, Design, finance, implementation, co-ordination aspects. Setting of appropriate emission boundaries, eligibility criteria's , inclusion of various actions and actors Environmental Integrity. Setting of right baselines including suppressed demand. MRV provision (Program level assessment (poA) / bottom-up and top down approaches); different verification levels ?? Transparency and Independence. Participatory approach (local/global stake holder) Sampling and QA/QC procedures on data quality Sustainable development indicators and tools

Methodological standards Comparable quality and fungible 34 CDM NAMA USE OF Institutional arrangements Broaden the scope of CDM DNA Roles and responsibilities DNA are information and knowledge providers of emission levels in all sector DNA facilitated the creation of networks among relevant actors in key sectors, both nationally and internationally. DNA interlink national sustainable development objectives to mitigation opportunities in the economy, as well as certain levels of expertise in mitigation issues. Use of the CDM EB approval process for internationally supported NAMA or to MRV domestic MRV Use of methodology approval process for sectors affected by NAMA Use of registry process Use of Accreditation structure ??

35 NAMA AND CDM OBJECTIVES COMPARISON NAMA CDM National appropriate mitigation actions Undertaken in host country, implemented measures are Nationally appropriate at facility level Contribute to real emission reductions Same Contribute to sustainable development

Same MRV of emission reductions MRV of emission reductions Voluntary MRV of co-benefits Voluntary MRV of co-benefits Deviation from BAU Mostly forward looking Deviation from BAU (Historical and forward looking) Transformational change to low carbon

development CDM plays a role in changing to low carbon development (spur in RE) Synergy : Interaction or cooperation of two or more mitigation mechanisms to produce a combined effect greater than the sum of their separate effects. 36 Sector characterization and where CDM could fit the purpose The energy supply sector is dominant in NAMA entries 37 The concept: Moving complexity towards us ..Baseline established to facilitate the calculation of emission reductions and removal and/or

the determination of additionality 38 The concept: South African Power Pool Potential to design regional NAMA e.g., FIT policy for RE promotion METHODOLOGY APPROACH 9 countries sharing 1 interconnected grid 9 national grid emission factors to calculate SB

APPROACH 1 grid 1 grid emission factor to calculate 39 The concept: Rice mills in Cambodia METHODOLOGY APPROACH SB APPROACH Around 22,000 small rice mills

using diesel engines Pre-calculated baseline for any small rice mill: So potentially: 22,000 emission factors 22,000 pages baseline settings and demonstrating additionality !! 0.0542 t-CO2 per tonne of rice

Alternative technologies to diesel engines deemed additional !! 40 Standardized baselines in the pipeline by sectors and countries Waste Management Transport Power Improved Cook stoves Forestry

Clinker Charcoal production Brick 0 5 10 15 20 WAPP Uganda

Trinidad and Tobago Sudan Sierra Leone Senegal So Tom and Principe Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Saint Lucia Rwanda Peru Namibia Malawi Madagascar Liberia Kenya Jamaica Honduras Haiti Guinea-Bissau

Grenada Ghana Gambia Ethiopia Ecuador Dominican Republic Dominica Cuba Colombia Central African Republic (CAR) Cape Verde Cameroon Burundi Belize Barbados 25 30 Antigua and Barbuda

41 Energy access issue: African Context The relationship between per-capita final energy consumption and income in developing countries Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 42

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