Seasonal Climate Outlook -

Seasonal Climate Outlook -

Western Australia Annual Preparedness Briefing Mike Bergin, Regional Director 7 September 2015 WA has been getting wetter Southwest WA has been getting drier Annual % area in decile 10(rainfall)

Southwestern Australia Recent conditions (rainfall) January to April May to August Western Australia is warming

Trend in mean temperature 19102014 (C/decade) Recent conditions (temperature) May to August maxima May to August

minima Extreme temperatures increasing 2013 in Perspective: Future Projections 5 4 RCP4.5 projected

annual temperature 3 Temperature Anomaly Observed annual temperature

2 1 0 -1 -2 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year Understanding El Nio

El Nio temperature impacts Typical winterspring El Nio maximum temperature El Nio rainfall impacts Historical rainfall deciles from 12 moderate-strong El Nios Rainfall for September to November

Rainfall for December to February Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Negative IOD Positive IOD

Spring temperature outlooks Probability of above median maximum temperature for September to November 2015 Probability of above median minimum temperature for September to November 2015

Spring rainfall outlook September Probability of above median rainfall for September to November 2015 and the months September and October October Bushfire potential

Issued September 2015 Tropical cyclones Australian region 814 tropical cyclones (average 11) 27 coastal crossings per year (average 4) Western Australia Average of 5 tropical cyclones 2 coastal crossings

1 of which is Cat 3 or higher Last year: below average number of tropical cyclones average number of landfalls All tropical cyclones reached category 3 or above The 2014-2015 tropical cyclone season

Tropical cyclone outlook for WA TC Olwyn 12 March 2015, NASA Strong El Nio so less likely to see first cyclone before Christmas

Expect slightly below average number of cyclones (around 4) However still expect 2 coastal impacts

One coastal impact cat 3 or higher High impact tropical cyclones can occur in any season

2006/7 season only 3 cyclones but one was TC George Severe thunderstorms Severe thunderstorms can form at anytime of the season Severe thunderstorms produce any of the following: Hailstones 2cm diameter

Wind gusts 90km/h Flash flooding Tornadoes Photo by Chris Kent Heatwaves: Increased risk A heatwave is 3 days or more of above normal temperatures. Monitor forecasts available at Flood risk Streamflow outlook Soil moisture lower layer (August) August to October

Widespread major flooding is less likely in El Nio (more likely in La Nia) Floods can occur regardless of catchment conditions or climate influences

Localised flooding (due to TC's, storms, etc.) are always a possibility Summary 2015 another warmer than average year despite some cold outbreaks El Nio is a dominant climate driver of weather patterns this season although less of an influence in WA Changes in risk compared to normal warm season Increased risk of heatwaves in warm season Decreased risk of widespread flooding,

Localised flood risk remains possibility Increased risk of bushfire in many areas due to dry and warm conditions Severe thunderstorms are ALWAYS possible Slightly later start and slightly below average number of tropical cyclones but still expect 2 coastal impacts in WA

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