Estimating 1 Cost Management According to the PMBOK
Estimating 1 Cost Management According to the PMBOK Guide, Project Cost Management knowledge area includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, financing, funding, managing, and controlling costs to complete the project within the approved budget There are three constituent Cost Management processes in the Planning process group Plan Cost Management Estimate Costs Determine Budget The 4th Cost Management process is called Control Costs and by its name it is clear that it is included within the Monitoring/Controlling process group
2 Note on Cost Management We should note that such things as the level of accuracy to be used for cost estimates, the units of measure (for example, hours, days, weeks, etc. for effort), the control accounts to be used in conjunction with the WBS (if applicable) are all environment specific and hence will not be a part of our discussion 3 Common Sources of Project Cost Labor Materials Subcontractors
Equipment & facilities Travel 08-04 Types of Costs Direct Vs. Indirect Direct assigned to the project that generate the cost: Labor & material Total Direct labor costs = (direct labor rate)(Total labor hours) Indirect Overhead and General and Admin (utilities, taxes, insurance, travel etc) Recurring Vs. Nonrecurring Recurring- continue over project life cycle Nonrecurring - once at beginning or end such as marketing analysis Fixed Vs. Variable Fixed do not vary with usage- capital equipment lease
Variable increase through usage Normal Vs. Expedited Expedited are unplanned costs incurred when steps are taken to speed up a projects completion such asovertime or adding temp or contract workers 08-05 Cost Estimation Ballpark (order of magnitude) 50% Used when time is or information is scarce Comparative 15% Assumption that historical data can be used as a frame of reference (parametric) Feasibility 10% Routinely used for construction projects. Developed after design work Definitive 5% Can only be given upon completion of most design work at a point when the scope and capabilities are well understood.
08-06 Estimating The PMBOK Guide identifies important estimating techniques Analogous estimating Parametric estimating Function Point Bottom-up estimating Three-point estimating All can be useful depending on the circumstances
7 Analogous (Top-Down) Estimating Analogous estimating uses information from previous similar projects as a basis for estimating the current project When estimating costs, the technique relies on the actual costs of previous similar projects (not the estimated costs) as a basis for estimating the cost for the current project Of course some adjustments may need to be made when applying historical information to the current project which will be in many ways different from any project done before Analogous cost estimating while generally less costly and less time-consuming to apply than other techniques, is also generally less accurate It may be more useful in the earlier phases of the project then later phases, when we have more project information available
8 Parametric Estimating Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables called parameters to calculate estimates for activities. These parameters might include such things as square footage in building construction, or lines of code in software development This technique can produce more accurate estimates than analogous estimating provided that the underlying data built into the statistical model being used is accurate and applies to the current project 9 Function Point Estimation Function Point Analysis is a system for estimating the size of software projects based on what the software does.
Function points are a standard unit of measure that represents the functional size of a software application. 08-10 Complexity Weighting Table for Function Point Analysis Complexity Weighting Function Low Medium High
Number of Inputs 2 x _____ = 4 x _____ = 6 x _____ = Number of Outputs 4 x _____ = 6 x _____ = 10 x _____ = Number of Interfaces
3 x _____ = 7 x _____ = 12 x _____ = Number of Queries 5 x _____ = 10 x _____ = 15 x _____ = Number of Files
2 x _____ = 4 x _____ = 8 x _____ = Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Total 08-11 Function Point Calculations for Restaurant Reorder System Complexity Weighting Function
Low Number of Inputs Medium 4 x 15 = Number of Outputs Number of Interfaces Total 60 10 x 20 = 3x3= Number of Queries
Number of Files High 200 9 10 x 6 = 2 x 40 = Total 60 80 409 Our organization estimates that each resource can perform 10 FPs per man month. 409/10 = 40.1. If we assign 4
programmers it would take 10 person months. 10 programmers would take about 4 months. If our avg. resource cost per programmer is 5k per month then our estimated cost for completing the job is about $200,000. Not an exact science. Copyright 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 08-12 Bottom-Up Estimating Bottom-up estimating is one of the most common and most reliable methods of estimating Its use depends on having a good understanding of the components of the work to be done As we have seen, the WBS is a primary artifact used in bottom-up estimating Recall that the advantage this approach accrues from the progressive decomposition we do in a WBS because it is usually much easier to estimate the cost of work packages accurately, than to estimate larger work components accurately
The accuracy of the method is further improved when we get the people who will actually be responsible for the work being estimated involved in providing the estimates 13 Three-Point Estimating The three-point estimating technique relies on taking a weighted average of three separate estimates Usually you would employ (4*ML +O + P)/6 A most likely estimate An optimistic estimate A pessimistic estimate A popular technique that employs three-point estimating is PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), pioneered by the US Navy in the Polaris Submarine Missile Program. PERT calculates an expected project activity cost using such a weighted
average. 14 Contingency Reserves An additional tool that can be used in estimating costs is called reserve analysis This usually includes including contingency reserves to account for the uncertainty in cost estimation. Such reserves can be calculated as a percentage of the total estimated cost (often called management reserves) As better information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used or reduced or even eliminated When this tool is used, contingencies should be clearly identified as such in the cost documentation. 15
Budget Contingencies Contingencies are needed because Project scope may change Murphys Law is present Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Cost estimation must anticipate interaction costs Normal conditions are rarely encountered 08-16 Cost of Quality A possible input for cost estimating are assumptions about the cost of quality (COQ) There are two major categories of quality, called the cost of conformance and the cost of nonconformance The cost of conformance is estimated based on the activities in the project designed to create a quality product The cost of nonconformance, which includes such things as rework or scrap work, is
very difficult to estimate and is often overlooked when project costs are estimated However, it is wise to include some assumptions about the cost of nonconformance in the original project cost estimates, especially in software projects 17 Outputs of the Estimate Costs Process There are two major outputs for the Estimate Costs process Activity cost estimates The basis for these estimates. The basis for the estimates should include enough supporting documentation to indicate clearly how cost estimates were derived This allows those using the estimates to better understand their possible accuracy
18 Updating Estimates Cost estimates should be refined throughout the project as more information about the project work becomes available As a rough rule of thumb, cost estimates given early in the project life cycle -- rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimates -- could have an accuracy range of as much as plus or minus 50% This means an estimate of 10,000 hours could be reflected by an actual cost anywhere in the range 5,000 to 15,000 hours Later as project information improves, cost estimates should converge toward a plus or minus 10% accuracy range This means a 10,000 hour estimate could be reflected by a true cost of between 9,000 and 11,000 hours
Organizational environments will differ as to what accuracies are acceptable at various points in a project The project sponsors sensitivity to estimate accuracy will always be a factor too, of course 19 Problems with Cost Estimation Low initial estimates Unexpected technical difficulties Lack of definition Specification changes External factors 08-20 Determining a Budget The Determine Budget process basically combines, or aggregates, the estimated costs of
individual activities or work packages The primary inputs for the Determine Budget process are: Activity cost estimates Associated basis of those estimates Scope baseline containing Scope statement Work breakdown structure (WBS) The main output of the Determine Budget process is the establishment of an authorized cost baseline for the entire project This baseline includes all authorized budgets, but excludes any management reserve Cost performance in the project will always be measured against the authorized cost baseline 21
Introduction. Chapter 01. Disclaimer: "Some of the figures in this presentation are taken from "An Introduction to Statistical Learning, with applications in R" (Springer, 2013) with permission from the authors: G. James, D. Witten, T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani "
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