TEACHING RISK MANAGEMENT Mark Warren September 17, 2017

TEACHING RISK MANAGEMENT Mark Warren September 17, 2017

TEACHING RISK MANAGEMENT Mark Warren September 17, 2017 What is RISK MANAGEMENT Many aspects Risk Assessment Risk or Loss Control Risk Avoidance Loss Mitigation Risk Transfer Risk Financing Self-financing Self-insurance or Captive Insurance Retentions

Different coverages Risk or Loss Control Risk or Loss Control = A conscious act or decision not to act that reduces the frequency or severity of losses or makes losses more predictable. The only sure way to eliminate an activitys risk is not to undertake it avoidance There is no uncertainty if there is no activity Loss Control

Loss control tools enable you to make some outcomes more certain Loss control is an essential component of risk management Loss control deals with preventing or minimizing harm due to an adverse risk you have undertaken Definitions Risk Risk = Uncertainty of outcome (+ or -) Tolerance The amount of uncertainty that one is willing to accept

while in pursuit of an objective. More Definitions Loss exposure = Any condition that presents a possibility of a loss (whether or not the loss actually occurs) Hypothermia Fire Hazard = Condition which increases frequency or severity of loss Cold, Rain, Wind

Combustible material, sparks, lightning Loss Control Steps 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Identify loss exposures Analyze loss exposures Examine feasibility of various actions Select loss control technique Implement the selected course of action Monitor results and revise if necessary 1 - Identify the Loss Exposures

Take a mental walk (or hike) For our purposes, identification is mostly done through the use of: Personal Experience Experience of Others Expertise of Others 2 - Analyze the Loss Exposures Prioritize Severity Maximum Possible Loss Probable Maximum Loss

Likelihood Almost Nil Slight Moderate Definite 3 - Examine the Feasibility of Various Loss Control Techniques Determine the potential outcome resulting from each of the Loss Control Techniques. Avoidance o Loss Prevention o Loss Control

o Separation, Duplication and Diversification The potential outcome of combinations of these techniques should also be examined o 4 Select Loss Control Technique Choose the most effective or a combination: 1. Avoidance not undertaking the activity. No activity = no risk 2. Diversification spreads loss exposures over numerous activities or regions 3. Duplication use of back-ups, spares or copies of critical information or capabilities 4. 5. Loss prevention taking steps to reduce the severity or probability of the loss

Loss reduction taking steps to minimize the severity of the loss 6. Separation disperses activity or asset over several locations 5 - Implement Selected Course of Action Once technique is selected, a technical decision must be made about how to implement. Delegated authority for implementation. 6 - Monitor and, if necessary, Revise Be

flexible New loss exposures may develop. Significance of existing exposures may change. Different loss control techniques may become more appropriate. Open Communications

During most group activities, it is important that all members of the group feel and have the opportunity to speak frankly, openly and without regard to positions within the group Members must not feel intimidated by the perceived expertise of others Humility versus Arrogance An effective leader should be able to learn from, be corrected by and sometimes be dependent upon others. LISTEN!!! Listen to understand the message. Empathize. Do not simply hear what is being said to craft your response.

Dont mistake humility for a lack of confidence, skill or knowledge. You are better off with all four of these. Case Study The Misadventures of Jack and Jill - #1 Jack and Jill went up a hill. Specifically they went up Mt. Lafayette on Saturday, May 13, by the Old Bridle and Greenleaf Trails. They intended to do a loop of about nine miles/15 km. They ate a good lunch before setting out, so they did not carry much extra food. They reasoned that they would only be out a few hours and the extra weight would slow them down. After reaching the summit of Lafayette around 3:30, they followed the Franconia Ridge to the Falling Waters Trail. About 1.2 km from the parking lot they came to Dry Brook. It wasnt dry. It was raging. It was also becoming dark and difficult to see. They had expected to be off the trail in less than four hours and did not bring any lights. The other brook crossings they encountered were passable, but due to the high water and poor visibility both of them fell in as they tried to step from wet rock to wet rock. Their boots and jeans were soaked. Jills sweatshirt was so wet she could wring the water out of it. Their cell phone was ruined. To make matters worse, they

could not find where the trail started on the other side of the brook. They decided to spend the night next to the stream, huddled next to a boulder. In the morning, Jill had lost her motor skills and could not walk. Jack found the trail and went back to the parking lot where he was able to get help. Where did Jack and Jill screw up Systematic Thinking System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control System 1 is the default System 2 conscious, rational and reasoned decisions based on self-control

System 2 must overcome the impulse of System 1 Your ability to use System 2 is reduced by fatigue, hunger, dehydration and hypothermia EMailed Case Studies You are leading a week-long backpacking trip. During the night a cold front with high winds passed through, breaking tree limbs and blowing down trees. A six-inch limb split off an overhead tree and landed on a participant tent. One of the participants received a glancing blow on his head while in his sleeping bag. When questioned, 14 year-old James said the storm had just woken him up when something hit the tent, collapsed it and hit him in the head through his sleeping bag. The commotion woke his tent mate and together they managed to push the branch off the tent. They came to get you because

James said he had a headache and a big lump on his head. Other than the lump and a headache, James says he feels okay. He has no spine pain or mid-line spinal tenderness, normal motor and sensory exams on his hands and feet, and no tingling or electric shooting pain in his arms or legs. His skull feels intact beneath the swelling. What is wrong with James and what should you do? Click here to find out. When You Click Here James appears to have a mild concussion: he has a headache and a scalp hematoma. Since you were able to palpate his skull through the swelling and it felt solid, he does not have a depressed skull fracture. Since James is under 16, begin an evacuation to the nearest hospital for potential imaging and physician follow-up in the morning. Monitor for S/Sx of a worsening (severe) concussion and vomiting (increased ICP) through the night. From: Wilderness Medical Training Center International

Go to [email protected] to subscribe Analyzing Risk A crude empirical way to analyze risk is to examine at the number of hazards involved in an activity. Hazards = individual loss exposures Human Hazards x Environmental Hazards = Relative level of risk The more severe the potential harm is, the lower the relative level of risk must be. Mt. Adams Death - 2/15/2015 Where Youll Find Me, by Ty Gagne She was on the trail shortly after 5:00 am This forecast was posted by 5:30 am:

Mt. Washington will truly be putting on a show today and tomorrow. Its well earned reputation for harsh winter weather will be on display, and Id recommend taking a seat away from the action for this show. Temperatures will be falling today, reaching -35 F on the summit overnight. During this time, wind speeds will be rising up to the 100 mph mark, with gusts possible reaching 125 mph. These conditions are not to be taken lightly. I encourage you to be judicious in your choice of adventure today. Even if your plan is to stay well below tree line today, bring plenty of warm clothes and extra food and water. There was no communication of that between her and her husband. No synergy. She barely ate or drank. Whats in your pack? Presi Traverse 2/15/2015 Satellite phone & case ACR ResQLink PLB

(2) iPhones Garmin GPS GoPro & selfie stick Camera case with batteries and remote camera activator Suunto Vector watch AMC map Handwritten itinerary Journal Chapstick Sunglasses Goggles & case Crampons & case LED Headlamp Zip Loc with food (3) Nalgeens (2 in neoprene holders) Osceolas

9/24/2017

Navigation - GPS, map & compass Sun protection - SPF30+ & hat w/brim Insulation - extra clothing & warm hat Illumination headlamp & extra batteries First Aid Supplies (restock) Group Go kit Fire - lighter Knife & Leatherman Nutrition - Emergency food (dog biscuit) Lunch and snacks

Honey buns Hydration - bottle & bladder * Poles Emergency shelter - Space blanket * Trowel Whistle * Toilet paper and waste baggie Android * Hand sanitizer Altimeter Watch *Fit bit Rain jacket * Bandana Looking at Kates Risk Analysis 1. 2. 3.

Unfamiliar with Whites Previously led by others Hiking solo 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Warning of hypothermia Recommend use of bailouts Suggest eating and drinking Lack of synergistic support

(Not accustomed to failure) (Risk taking nature) Bitter Cold 2. Ridiculously high winds 3. Missing necessities 4. Hypothermia muddling decision-making WAS THIS WITHIN YOUR LEVEL OF RISK TOLERANCE? HOW ABOUT KATES? 1. Two Incidents from Appalachia Franconia Ridge

Hancocks - RI Hiking Club 6/9/2016 Used Wunderground 27 F; Ice & rain; 50+ mph winds Well-travelled trail Two AT Slackpackers Eyeglasses useless Soaked - hypothermic Relied on luck for rescue

5/8/2016 30 F; rain and sleet Group Well prepared for Conditions Self-rescue interrupted by first responders youtube.com/watch? v=eqBeHAX87dI&feature =youtu.be Three scouts finish a 10-mile hike that ends near the tip of a peninsula. The highlight of the hike is supposed to be the ride in a canoe or sailboat mile across the lake to the scout camp. There is no one present to tell them which type of vessel to take. There is no leader among them. There is one canoe with paddles and one sailboat. The scouts know how to canoe, but one of them has sailed before and they all agree that it would be great to try

the sailboat. For simplicity, lets put the end of the peninsula in the northern part of the lake and the camp right across from the peninsula on the southern shore. A gentle wind is blowing down the lake, out of the west. The scout who had sailed before has only done so with the wind at his back. He knows nothing about controlling the boat when the wind is broadsiding him. Despite his efforts to use the rudder to steer the boat to the southwest, the wind pushes them southeast. When they are about halfway across the lake, the three decide to turn back and take the canoe across. They turn the boat to port, away from the direction of the wind, but never complete a 180-degree turn. Instead, the wind catches the sails and the boat goes past the launch point and into a power line located to the southwest of where they intended to land. Two die. One is horribly burned. Paperwork Itinerary Lists Forecast Sample List

from OneNote Winter bag Down bag Hammock Space blanket Bathrobe Running shoes Boots Socks Brown long underwear White long underwear Synthetic undershorts (2) rain jackets Blue pants (3) Hawaiian shirts Blue AMC T-shirt

Toiletry kit w/meds Tripod Camera Headlamp Batteries Whistle Compass GPS LAPTOP!!! PROJECTOR!!! Good Answer Goodies Agenda Books Where

you'll find me (3) CPCU Appalachia Outdoor Leadership MSM Itinerary Info to give a responsible person in the front-country the intended parking area vehicle information make, model, color, plate route objective time expected back at vehicles names of participants

emergency contact info. for participants emergency call time and phone number When to call in assistance An unusual scenario You are backpacking to the Liberty Spring tentsite in the WMNF. Your trip description clearly indicated that no recreational substances would be allowed. When being screened, a participant indicates that they are being treated for opiate addiction and need to administer a prescribed shot of Suboxone every evening. The coleader tells you and you accept them. After dinner at the cooking area, you see the

participant go down the overflow campsite carrying a small black case. You think they have stepped away to administer their shot of Suboxone. You do not see the participant again for about ten minutes, so you send the coleader down to quietly do a well-being check. The coleader finds the participant unconscious with no respirations or pulse. Your are called and find something labelled Narcan in the kit the participant was carrying. How could you have prevented this situation? Training as a Loss Control Tool Is WFA still enough? First Aid training is a loss reduction technique. Navigation training is loss prevention. Winter Hiking Workshop Advanced Skills Workshop Encourage those you are training to select the

cream of the crop they are teaching and recommend leadership training. Boston HB Training Programs Spring and Fall Leadership Program Winter and Spring Hiking Programs WFA, AWFA and recertifications Map and Compass Weekend Advanced Skills Workshop Reading the Clouds Weather Forecasting Crisis Response If a crisis does occur: dont make things worse scene safety, rash actions, no more victims

make initial delegation- scene commander, first aid provider, scribe, victim advocate assess nature of victims injury, life threatening, cant continue, can continue plan implement reassess PRACTICE, PRACTICE, PRACTICE *Practice First Aid techniques between certifications. *Practice lighting your stove or filtering water until you can do it blindfolded. *Seek opportunities for practice outside of this organization Later Consultation If you have any questions in the future or

want to discuss a potentially difficult situation, please feel free to contact me. Mark Warren [email protected] (617) 233-1520

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