Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver

Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver

Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management & Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Research [email protected] Dr. Glenn Mueller Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Group Professor University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management Visiting Professor Harvard University, 2002-2008 & summer executive education semesters Guest Lecturer Wharton School, Yale, Berkeley, Ohio State, UNC, USC, European Business School, University of Regensburg Previous Experience Legg Mason Real Estate Investment Strategist PriceWaterhouseCoopers National Director of Real Estate Research Alex. Brown Kleinwort Benson Head of Real Estate Research Prudential Real Estate Investors Vice President of Real Estate Research B.S.B.A. in finance from the University of Denver MBA from Babson College Ph.D. in Real Estate from Georgia State University DU Founded 1864 Daniels COB ranked top 50 - WSJ 550 Students Earning Degrees Undergraduate - BSBA Graduate MBA & MS Executive MS Real Estate, Construction Management, RECM, RE & Accounting, Finance, Marketing, Management, International Business, Law Why Real Estate Fits A Portfolio = Size U.S. Real Estate vs. Other Asset Classes - 12/06 Source: Pension & Investments, October 30, 2006 and Prudential Real Estate Investors, December 2006.

All Real Estate = Half - 12/06 U.S. Real Estate Values = $33.3 Trillion Source: Prudential Real Estate Investors, December 2006. Market Cycle Analysis Physical Cycle Demand & Supply drive Occupancy Occupancy drives Rental Growth Market Cycle Quadrants Phase 3 Demand/SupplyHypersupply Equilibrium Point No w e N ns o C Phase 1 Recovery Legg Mason Real Estate Research Time ng ea s i Incr y g anc s Vac s in i on ea let cr cy mp In can on Co

c ti re Va t ru Mo n n o i ct u tr ns ni i l c De c a gV cy n a w e N tru s n n o i ct Co Long Term Vacancy Average

Co y w De ng i n cli c Va c an Ne Occupancy Phase 2 Expansion Phase 4 Recession Occupancy Demand/Supply Equilibrium High Rent Growth in Rent Growth Rents Rise Tight Market Positive But Rapidly Declining Toward New Construction Levels Cost Feasible New Long Term Average Occupancy Construction Rents -

Below Inflation Rental Growth Negative Rental Growth Below Inflation & Negative Rent Growth Physical Market Cycle Characteristics Time Historic National Office Rental Growth 11.0% 10.5% 6.4% 10 9 8 Occupancy 0.3% 4 -3.0% 1 6 12.5% 10.0% 13 5 2.7% 3.3%

14 6.7% 15 4.0% 1.6% 3 2 12 6.1% 7 Long Term Average Occupancy 1.7% 11 30 Year Cycle - Periods 1968-1997 -1.5% Time -1.0% 16 1 Historic National Industrial Rental Growth % 8.3% 6.8% 5.1% 10 9 8 Occupancy

Long Term Avg Occupancy 3.0% 6 -2.1% 0.8% 1 3 2 7 8.5% 4.6% 11 12 5.9% 13 4.8% 3.8% 5 4 0.4% 14 15 4.6% -0.4% 0.7% 16 30 Year Cycle - Periods 1968-1997 2.8% Time 1 National Property Type Cycle Locations Phase IIIHypersupply Phase II - Expansion Retail - 1st-Tier Regional Malls

Retail - NH & Com Power Center Retail Health Facility Hotel - Full-Service Retail - Factory Outlet Industrial - Warehouse 6 Industrial R&D Flex 1 2 3 4 5 Office - Suburban Phase I - Recovery 7 8 9 10 11 LT Average Occupancy 13 14 15 Apartment Senior Housing Hotel - Ltd. Service Office - Downtown

12 16 Retail - 2nd Tier Regional Malls 1st Qtr 2008 Source: Mueller, 2008 Phase IV - Recession 1 Office Market Cycle Analysis 1st Quarter, 2008 Dallas FW Ft. Lauderdale-1 Hartford Indianapolis Kansas City Long Island Las Vegas-1 Memphis Minneapolis St. Louis Stamford W. Palm Beach-1 Albuquerque Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Milwaukee Norfolk Pittsburgh 1 2 Atlanta Chicago Jacksonville Nashville Philadelphia

Riverside-1 N. New Jersey Richmond Wilmington Honolulu Miami Wash DC Los Angeles New Orleans-1 Oklahoma City Orange County Phoenix-1 Raleigh-Durham Salt Lake San Jose Tampa 3 4 Austin Charlotte+1 Denver Houston New York 6 5 Boston East Bay Orlando Portland Sacramento San Diego San Francisco Seattle NATION 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 San Antonio+1 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller, 2008 14 15 16 1 Industrial Market Cycle Analysis 1st Quarter, 2008 Los Angeles Chicago Cincinnati Dallas FW-1 Indianapolis Milwaukee Minneapolis New York Orlando-1 Philadelphia St. Louis+1 Stamford Atlanta Baltimore Boston Columbus Hartford Tampa 1 2 Cleveland

Detroit Pittsburgh 3 4 Austin-1 Charlotte Denver Honolulu Long Island Memphis Miami Nashville N. New Jersey Oklahoma City Raleigh-Durham Wash DC NATION Ft. Lauderdale Houston Kansas City+1 Norfolk+1 Richmond Salt Lake Seattle 6 5 Portland San Francisco San Jose 7 Jacksonville Phoenix Sacramento San Antonio San Diego 8 Orange County Riverside-1

10 9 11 Las Vegas 12 13 East Bay New Orleans+1 W. Palm Beach 14 LT Average Occupancy 15 16 Source: Mueller, 2008 1 Apartment Market Cycle Analysis Austin+2 Jacksonville Las Vegas Ft. Lauderdale Miami Norfolk Sacramento Wash DC 1st Quarter, 2008 Indianapolis Raleigh-Durham 1 Hartford Milwaukee 2 3

Cincinnati+1 Houston Long Island Nashville Richmond-1 St. Louis 4 5 Charlotte-1 Cleveland Detroit Memphis Pittsburgh San Antonio Stamford East Bay N. New Jersey Portland San Jose NATION Baltimore Denver Philadelphia Seattle 6 7 8 New York San Francisco Atlanta Boston Columbus Dallas FW Honolulu Kansas City Minneapolis Oklahoma City 9

New Orleans+2 Salt Lake 10 11 Chicago Los Angeles 12 Orange County+1 Phoenix+1 Riverside+1 San Diego+1 13 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller, 2008 Orlando+1 Tampa+1 W Palm Beach+1 14 15 16 1 Retail Market Cycle Analysis 1st Quarter, 2008 East Bay Long Island New York Orange County San Diego San Francisco Wash DC Cincinnati-1 Cleveland Columbus Hartford-1

Milwaukee-1 Nashville W. Palm Beach-1 Oklahoma City Kansas City Pittsburgh Raleigh-Durham Memphis-1 New Orleans Riverside-1 San Antonio 1 6 2 3 Charlotte-1 Detroit-1 Indianapolis 4 5 Boston Los Angeles San Jose 7 8 9 10 11 Baltimore Ft. Lauderdale Honolulu+1 Portland Richmond+1

Seattle St. Louis NATION 12 LT Average Occupancy N. New Jersey Philadelphia 13 Miami+1 Norfolk+1 Sacramento Salt Lake Tampa+1 Dallas FW Denver Houston-1 Minneapolis Stamford Source: Mueller, 2008 Chicago+1 Orlando+1 Phoenix+1 14 15 16 1 Atlanta Austin Jacksonville-3 Las Vegas Hotel Market Cycle Analysis Atlanta Chicago Denver Ft. Lauderdale+1 Norfolk

Philadelphia-1 Phoenix-1 Portland Raleigh-Durham Richmond Riverside-1 San Antonio Stamford Seattle W. Palm Beach 1st Quarter, 2008 Cincinnati Hartford+1 Indianapolis Pittsburgh Tampa-1 Columbus St. Louis 1 Cleveland 2 3 4 5 Baltimore-1 Detroit Kansas City New Orleans N. New Jersey NATION 6 7 Boston+1 Dallas Las Vegas Memphis Milwaukee

Minneapolis Sacramento Salt Lake-1 8 Austin East Bay Honolulu+1 Long Island Los Angeles 9 Charlotte Jacksonville Miami Nashville Oklahoma City Orange County Orlando San Jose Wash DC 10 11 Houston New York San Diego San Francisco+1 12 13 14 LT Average Occupancy Source: Mueller, 2008 15 16 1 1970s Cycle

Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) Strong Demand from the 1960s that stopped Recession 1974 Capital Flow - Mortgage REITs produced oversupply Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) Baby Boom Generation Goes to Work = Demand Capital Flow Shut Down = no supply = Lenders Recover Markets tighten and reach peak occupancy 1979 (5% vacancy) 1970s Office Demand & Supply Demand 8% Oversupply Years 6% Supply Baby Boomers Go To Work 4% 2% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970

0% 1980s Cycle Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) Tight market in 1979 pushes rents and prices up Tax Act of 1981 attracts taxable investors supply up Inflation pushes real estate prices higher Thrift Deregulation allows capital to flow Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) Tax Act of 1986 slows taxable investors, but not tax free Poor stock market attracts Pension & Foreign capital Rising R.E. prices masks poor income returns 10% 1980s Office Demand & Supply 8% Demand Supply Oversupply Years 6% 4% 2% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982

1981 1980 0% 1990s Cycle Factors Driving The First Half Cycle (5 Year) Moderate but stable demand growth (1991 recession minor) Oversupply and Foreclosures shut down construction Excess space absorbed - bringing markets back Factors Driving The Second Half Cycle (5 Year) Moderate Demand growth Continues Oversupply absorbed and return performance improves Construction constrained causing rents & prices to rise More efficient markets match supply to demand Demand Supply 1990s Office Demand & Supply 3.0% Demand 2.5% Matched Supply Oversupply Absorbed 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Source: FW Dodge, CB Commercial, BLS, Mueller 1999 1998

1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 0.0% 2000s Cycle Demand Globalization - creates stable U.S. economy Job Growth out of Technology Change 2.7 million population growth per year for 10 years Baby boomers at highest income earning years second home market wave Echo boom children college, first job, & renting Aging population not a major factor till 2014 Employment growth drives commercial demand 2000s Cycle Demand Age 0-60: Percent of Total Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2006. 2000s Cycle Change in 20-29 Year Old Age Cohort 1,500,000 1,000,000 Baby Boom Echo Boom 500,000 -

(500,000) Gen X 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20

06 20 08 E 20 10 E 20 12 E 20 14 E (1,000,000) Source: National Center for Health Statistics and Mueller estimates Government Stimulus Working? 35 Top Federal Budget Deficits Since 1932 30 20 15 10 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Office of Management & Budget 2003 1993 1935 1076 1939 1991 1984 1985 1934

1946 1945 0 1943 % of GDP 25 Any U.S. Recession Should be MILD The Rest of the World is Growing Well Export growth supports demand for industrial space. 2008 GDP % Growth Source: World Bank estimates 2000s Cycle Supply Constraint Public Markets make R.E. Capital markets efficient Economically driven capital - low spec construction 500 + Research watchdogs Data Available Constrained Supply (economically driven capital) construction labor harder to find materials costs increasing infrastructure problems constrain growth Feedback loop keeps demand and supply in better balance greater transparency Faster reaction to demand slowdown 2000s US Office Demand & Supply FORECAST 3% Office Dem and & Supply Demand 1.41% Supply 1.44% 2% 1% 0% -1%

2000 2002 2004 2006 -2% -3% Supply Reacted to Demand Slow Down Demand Supply Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2007. 2008 2010 2012 National Property Type Cycle Forecast Phase IIIHypersupply Phase II - Expansion Health Facility Hotel - Full-Service Apartment Office - Suburban Senior Housing 1 2 3 4

5 6 7 9 Hotel - Ltd. Service 10 11 12 Neighborhood/Community Retail+1 Power Center Retail 13 LT Average Occupancy Office Downtown Retail - Factory Outlet Industrial Warehouse Industrial - R&D Flex Phase I - Recovery 8 Retail - 1st Tier Regional Malls 1st Qtr 2009 ESTIMATE Source: Mueller, 2008 14 15 16 Retail 2nd -Tier Regional Malls Phase IV - Recession

1 Office Occupancy & Rent Cycle Office Occupancy Rent Growth 92 Forecast 12% 9% 6% 88 3% 1.7% 84 0% -3% -6% 80 Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2008. -9% Office Market Cycle FORECAST 1st Quarter, 2009 Estimate Chicago Jacksonville Kansas City Las Vegas-1 Memphis Minneapolis Norfolk N. New Jersey Richmond Riverside Stamford St. Louis

1 2 Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Detroit Milwaukee Philadelphia Pittsburgh Dallas FW New Orleans Miami-1 Oklahoma City Orange County Orlando-1 Sacramento Salt Lake 3 4 Atlanta Ft. Lauderdale-1 Hartford Indianapolis Long Island Los Angeles Nashville Phoenix-1 Raleigh-Durham Tampa W. Palm Beach-1 Denver New York 6 5 Boston Charlotte East Bay

Portland San Diego San Jose Seattle Wash DC NATION 7 8 9 10 11 12 LT Average Occupancy Austin-1 Honolulu Houston-1 San Antonio San Francisco 13 14 15 Source: Mueller, 2008 16 1 Industrial Occ. Cycle & Rent Growth 93.0% 4.0% 92.0% 2.0% 1.2% 91.0%

0.0% -2.0% 90.0% -4.0% 89.0% 9 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 8 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Industrial Rent Growth industrial Occupancy Rate Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2007. Industrial Market Cycle FORECAST 1st Quarter, 2009 Estimate Atlanta Baltimore Cleveland Columbus Hartford Pittsburgh St. Louis Denver Houston Jacksonville Long Island Memphis Milwaukee Norfolk Phoenix Raleigh-Durham+1 Richmond Sacramento Salt Lake Wash DC 2 1 Detroit

Boston Chicago Cincinnati Dallas FW Indianapolis Miami Nashville-1 N. New Jersey Oklahoma City San Antonio Stamford Tampa 3 4 Los Angeles New Orleans San Jose San Francisco W. Palm Beach 6 5 Austin Charlotte Ft. Lauderdale Honolulu Kansas City Minneapolis New York Orlando Philadelphia Seattle-1 NATION 7 8 East Bay 9 10

11 Las Vegas Riverside 12 Orange County 13 LT Average Occupancy Portland San Diego Source: Mueller, 2008 14 15 16 1 Apartment Occ. Cycle & Rent Growth 6.0% 95.5% 5.0% 95.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.0% 94.5% 94.0% 2.0% 93.5% 1.0%

93.0% 0.0% -1.0% 92.5% -2.0% 92.0% Apartment Rent Growth Apartment Occupancy Rate Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2008. Apartment Market Cycle FORECAST 1st Quarter, 2009 Estimates New Orleans+1 San Diego Wash DC Salt Lake Chicago Charlotte Cleveland Detroit Indianapolis 1 2 3 4 Memphis San Antonio Hartford Milwaukee-1 RaleighDurham Baltimore Boston Kansas City

Oklahoma City Richmond St. Louis 6 5 Cincinnati Dallas FW-1 Houston Long Island Pittsburgh Stamford 7 East Bay N. New Jersey 8 Atlanta Columbus Denver Honolulu Nashville Minneapolis Philadelphia Seattle NATION 9 10 11 San Jose+1 San Francisco Austin Ft. Lauderdale+1 Las Vegas+1 Miami+1 Norfolk+1 Orange County Riverside 12

Los Angeles New York Portland 13 LT Average Occupancy Jacksonville+1 Phoenix+2 Sacramento+2 14 15 Orlando+2 Tampa+2 W. Palm Beach+2 Source: Mueller, 2008 16 1 Retail Occ. Cycle & Rent Growth 6.0% 92.0% 4.0% 90.0% 2.0% 88.0% 1.4% 0.0% 86.0% -2.0% 84.0%

-4.0% 82.0% -6.0% 80.0% Retail Rent Growth Retail Occupancy Rate Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2007. Retail Market Cycle FORECAST 1st Quarter, 2009 Estimates East Bay New York Oklahoma City Dallas FW Denver Milwaukee Minneapolis W. Palm Beach Cleveland-1 Indianapolis Las Vegas Nashville Riverside 1 2 Jacksonville New Orleans Los Angeles Pittsburgh Stamford 6 3 4

Charlotte Cincinnati Columbus Detroit Hartford-1 Kansas City Memphis 5 7 8 9 10 11 Boston Orange County San Francisco Wash DC 12 13 LT Average OccupancyBaltimore Ft. Lauderdale Honolulu+1 Long Island Norfolk Portland San Diego Seattle St. Louis NATION Philadelphia San Jose Houston N. New Jersey Raleigh-Durham Source: Mueller, 2008

Chicago Miami Richmond Atlanta Tampa Austin Orlando+1 San Antonio Sacramento+1 14 15 Phoenix Salt Lake 16 1 Hotel Occ. Cycle & Rent Growth 70.0% 14.0% 68.0% 10.0% 6.5% 6.0% 66.0% 2.0% 64.0% -2.0% 62.0% -6.0% -10.0% 60.0%

Hotel RevPar Growth Hotel Occupancy Rate (%) Source: Property & Portfolio Research, Grubb & Ellis, Mueller 2007. Hotel Market Cycle FORECAST 1st Quarter, 2009 Estimates Charlotte Denver Jacksonville-1 Nashville Oklahoma City Orange County Portland Richmond Riverside Wash DC NATION Dallas FW Hartford Memphis Minneapolis Raleigh-Durham-2 Stamford Baltimore-2 Detroit Kansas City St. Louis Tampa-1 New Orleans-1 1 2 3 4 Cleveland 8 6 5 Cincinnati

Columbus Indianapolis N. New Jersey Pittsburgh San Antonio-1 W. Palm Beach-1 7 Atlanta Boston Ft. Lauderdale-1 Las Vegas Milwaukee Norfolk Phoenix Sacramento Salt Lake Seattle 9 East Bay Houston Long Island San Jose San Francisco Los Angeles New York 10 Austin Chicago Honolulu Miami Orlando Philadelphia San Diego-1 11 12 LT Average Source: Mueller, 2008 13

Occupancy 14 15 16 1 Market Information used to: determine competitive position set lease strategy determine improvements program Real Estate Financial Cycles Capital Flows Affect Prices Market Cycle Capital Flow Impact Capital Flows to Existing Properties Cost Feasible Rents Reached y t r e p o r P e l c y C et k r a M a C

l a t To l a t pi w o l F Hyper Supply LT Occupancy Avg. le c Cy Capital Flows to New Construction 96 National Office Physical Market Cycle vs. Financial Cycle = New Permit Values 6 ye ar lag 65,000 Physical Financial No Lag 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 88 35,000 30,000

84 25,000 20,000 15,000 80 1972Source: 1976 1980 1984 1988 CB Commercial, Census Bureau Market Cycle Source: BEA, CB Commercial, Mueller 1992 1996 2000 Permit 2004 Value ($Mil) Occupancy 92 60,000 Flow of Funds Commercial Mortgages All Sectors (1976 - 2001) 25,000 False Price Appreciation Support 20,000 ($ Mils) 15,000 10,000

? 5,000 0 Public Market Volatility -5,000 Source: Federal Reserve 2000Q1 1998Q1 1996Q1 1994Q1 1992Q1 1990Q1 1988Q1 1986Q1 1984Q1 1982Q1 1980Q1 1978Q1 1976Q1 1974Q1 1972Q1 1970Q1 -10,000 Property Price Movement Historic Cap Rates

11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 Office - CBD Industrial - R&D Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago Office - suburban Apartments 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990

1989 7.0 Industrial - Warehouse Property Prices Strong Historic Cap Rates 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 Hotels Power Center Source: Real Estate Research Corporation - Chicago Regional Mall Neighborhood Comm. 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993

1992 1991 1990 6.0 1989 7.0 Transaction Pricing Q1 2004 Cap Rates 9.5 9.3 9.3 Denver 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.0 7.8 US 8.4 7.7 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.0 Office 36/1636 deals

Industrial 25/1319 deals Source: Real Capital Analytics, New York Retail 33/1624 deals Apartment 37/1798 deals www.rcanalytics.com Transaction Pricing Q3 2006 Cap Rates 9.0 Denver 8.5 US 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.6 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.8 Office

94/3512 deals Industrial 26/2871 deals Source: Real Capital Analytics, New York Retail 39/2703 deals Apartment 63/3922 deals www.rcanalytics.com Supply The new supply of space was down in 2006 and 2007 and the forecast is for moderate supply growth well below the long-term average Commercial Real Estate Supply Growth Source: Property & Portfolio Research & Dividend Capital Research. Average Cap Rates 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% industrial strip ctr of f suburban 7.00% NNN retail 6.50% garden apt 6.00% of f CBD

5.50% 1 2 '04 3 4 1 2 '05 3 4 1 2 '06 3 4 1 2 '07 3 4 Quarterly Transactions 2001 -2007 net acquisitions by capital sector (all core) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 inst'l foreign reit/public user/other

-10 -15 -20 Source: Real Capital Analytics 2008, www.rcanalytics.com fund syndicator private condo converter Globalization of Real Estate Markets U.S. Still Looks Cheap Office Cap Rates Office Prices ($/Sq. Ft.) 6.6% $1,081 $641 $621 5.3% $627 4.8% $324 Source: Real Capital Analytics, January 2008 rcanalytics.com 4.8% 4.3% Transactions Growing US Property Acquisitions office, industrial, multifamily & retail properties $5 mil.+ $350 billions

Privatization $300 Portfolio One-Off $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $2001 2002 Source: Real Capital Analytics, 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Debt Rates having Little Effect on Prices Mortgage Rates & Price Appreciation Mtg Rates (7-10 yr fixed conduit) Moody's/REAL CPPI (monthly, all property types) Source: Real Capital Analytics, 2008 Jul 0 7 Apr 07 Ja n 07 O ct 06 100 Jul 0 6

5.25% Apr 06 120 Ja n 06 5.50% O ct 05 140 Jul 05 5.75% Apr 05 160 Jan 05 6.00% O ct 0 4 180 Jul 0 4 6.25% Apr 04 200 Ja n 04 6.50% Diversified Buyer Group Composition of Equity Buyers office, industrial, retail and multifamily properties $5 mil.+ 100%

90% 17% 80% 8% 70% 17% 19% 8% 13% 13% 22% 11% foreign 10% reit/public 7% 11% 60% 50% 40% inst'l user/other 7% 6% 9% 5% 7% 12% 32%

30% 14% 40% 3% 3% syndicator 30% 20% 34% 22% 10% fund condo converter private 0% 2004 Source: Real Capital Analytics, 2008 2005 2006 2007 Private Funds a Major Source of Capital The Universe of Private Equity Funds Targeted Equity Raise Number of Funds 450 $250 in billions

400 $200 350 300 $150 250 200 $100 150 100 $50 50 0 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Real Estate Alert Source: Real Estate Alert 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Billions 35 Foreign Acquisitions of US Property Other (trailing 12 months, office, industrial, apartment, retail properties) 30 Latin America Euro 25 Pac Rim 20

Canada 15 UK 10 Australia Mid East 5 German 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Real Capital Analytics, January 2008 rcanalytics.com 2006 2007 2008 Physical Cycle Demand & Supply Affect Vacancies Rental Growth Demand Growth SLOWER / LOWER 2008 Economic growth Positive? Supply Slowing - balanced absorption? Return to Growth Phase in 2009/2010? 2008 Financial Cycle Capital Flows Affect Prices Stock Market Fear Real Estate the SAFEST Investment Alternative? R E Equity dominated by Private Markets (diversified buyer groups) Yield Spread drives SOME Buyers (low interest rates?) Public Debt Market in Turmoil Big Capital Source Confidence in R E prices in 200? For an electronic copy of the Real Estate Market Cycle Monitor Go to

dividendcapital.com

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • Amyloid Processing in Neurons - Internal Medicine

    Amyloid Processing in Neurons - Internal Medicine

    CATIE-AD trial. 421 AD patients with psychosis and aggression assigned to olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, or placebo or "watchful waiting" over 9 months. No statistical differences between groups, although placebo most often superior in net health benefit analysis. Olanzapine group -...
  • Report of JCOMM-5 to HSSC 9 6-10 November 2017, Ottawa, Canada

    Report of JCOMM-5 to HSSC 9 6-10 November 2017, Ottawa, Canada

    Rear Admiral John Okon . Deputy Hydrographer of the Navy. Stanley Harvey. Note: Rear Admiral John Okon has replaced Admiral Tim Gallaudet this past year. Admiral Gallaudet is now the Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere within...
  • Strategic Management At the Inflection Point of Exponential

    Strategic Management At the Inflection Point of Exponential

    John Maynard Keynes, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930)* "We are suffering just now from a bad attack of economic pessimism.It is common to hear people say that the epoch of enormous economic progress which characterized the nineteenth century is...
  • Important Focus Areas for Opinion - Collins Education Associates

    Important Focus Areas for Opinion - Collins Education Associates

    Imagine going to see the movie version of a book you loved. Then suddenly, you are waiting for you favorite part and… It makes sense that the movie can't include everything, but that's why the book is better! Ask 100...
  • The Urinary System - Mrs. Tidrick's Science Classroom

    The Urinary System - Mrs. Tidrick's Science Classroom

    the urinary system removes salts and nitrogenous wastes. maintains normal concentration of water and electrolytes. maintains pH, controls red blood cell production and blood pressure. Composition. consists of a pair of kidneys which remove substances from the blood.
  • 投影片 1 - National Chengchi University

    投影片 1 - National Chengchi University

    The "magic" of clustered SEs is that, by working at the level of the entities and their averages , you never need to worry about estimating any of the underlying autocovariances - they are in effect estimated automatically by the...
  • Place Value Call out the  number before the

    Place Value Call out the number before the

    Three-digit numbers have Two Hundreds five Tens Eight Units = Two hundred and fifty eight Now it's YOUR turn. one hundred and thirty-six 136 one hundred and twenty 120 one hundred and twenty-seven 127 one hundred and nineteen 119 one...
  • Digital Citizenship - birdvilleschools.net

    Digital Citizenship - birdvilleschools.net

    Digital Citizenship. Define digital citizenship. ... Liz is using the Internet to buy decorations for the homecoming dance. She is unsure of what exactly she is looking for, but wants something that looks nice. ... Use the weekly polls as...