Complexity theory, time and strategy

Complexity theory, time and strategy

Anticipation and Emergence in Entrepreneurial Practice #Anticipation2017 Anticipation and Emergence in Entrepreneurial Practice Ted Fuller, University of Lincoln, UK Elena Antonacopoulou, Liverpool University, UK Second International Conference on Anticipation University College, London November 2017 #Anticipation2017

How does the future get made? This paper explores functions and characteristics of anticipation in shaping innovation and innovative practices; in contexts typically referred to as entrepreneurial. #Anticipation2017 Abstract Innovation Emergence #Anticipation2017

Anticipation is inherent in and necessary to the practices of entrepreneurial activities..[that] give rise to the generation of novelty Innovation emerges from practices that are highly interactive between the agent and its environment (comprising other agents). Our suggestion is that entrepreneuring is practiced in an anticipatory mode. Practice Microinteractions #Anticipation2017 Practice-based studies tend to focus on

reproduction and institutionalization (Gherardi, 2009). There is an inherent innovation within a practice in the way it is transformed every time it is performed by social actors. Anticipation and the practise of practice Reflexivity #Anticipation2017 Practising is a practice itself; it entails deliberate, habitual and spontaneous repetition, reflective of the dynamic process of rehearsing, reviewing, refining,

and changing different aspects of ones practices and the relationships amongst them (Antonacopoulou, 2008). Entrepreneuring and innovation A travelling concept (Steyaert 2007, p456) There are no technical innovations without innovations in practice (Shove, E. et al 2012:11) #Anticipation2017 Anticipatory practices Situated

Practising #Anticipation2017 Foresight is situated practising by entrepreneurs as a combination of processes, guided by a sense of producing both regularity and value, for example as a business model which, when formed, is relatively stable and creates exchangeable value. (Fuller and Warren 2006b; 2008). Combinations of intersubjective processes relating to (1) Experimenting, (2) Reflexive Identity formation, (3) Organising and (4) Sensing (responses to perceived environmental

change) (Fuller, Argyle, & Moran, 2004; Fuller et al., 2008). The processes are inter-connected and part of the anticipatory coupling between the enterprise and its environment, mediated by intersubjective interpretation of the actors in the enterprise and of course, the other actors with whom they inter-act. Modeling relations Judgement In an anticipatory system the modeling relations synthesize entailments in a natural system by inferential entailments in

a formal system. The relational model is a set of inferential entailments. Inference is a judgmental process Rosen 1985, p72 #Anticipation2017 Anticipatory coupling Practising entrepreneuring is an anticipatory mode of coupling of the actors. Such couplings are central organising features of perception, cognition, affect, memory, motivation and action which may be conscious prospection occurring spontaneously and continuously (Seligman et al., 2013). Indeed, even when social

actors engage in conscious prospection, their intuitive sense of the value of alternatives may be underwritten by unconscious simulation (Railton 2014). #Anticipation2017 Emergence The appearance of an emergent property produced through interactions of something other than the emergent property, and that the emergent property has features which are novel from the features that produced them. See Humphreys (2016:26) for further

explanation. #Anticipation2017 Emergence in social structures Materiality of ephemeral emergents Social Structure (Level E) Written texts (procedures, laws, regulations); material systems and infrastructures (architecture, urban design, communication and transport networks) Stable Emergents (Level D) The Emergence

Paradigm (Sawyer 2005:211), showing the circle of emer-gence (p220), i.e. that area which is subject to social emergence Group sub-cultures, group slang and catchphrases, conversational routines, shared social practices, collective memory) Ephemeral Emergents (Level C) Topic, context, interactional frame, participation structure; relative role and status Interaction (Level B) Discourse patterns, symbolic interaction, collaboration, negotiation

Individual (Level A) Intention, agency, personality, cognitive process #Anticipation2017 Causation and emergence Micro-interactional mechanisms (Sawyer 2005) Relational Morphogenesis (transformation) / Morphostasis (Archer 1995) Redescription Principle (Elder-Vass 2008) The emergent form has causal power because the parts and their relations are contained within it. Norm group/circles (Elder-Vass

2008/2010) The only representations or beliefs held in social institutions are the individual normative beliefs of the individuals concerned [] mutual commitment to endorse and enforce the practice concerned #Anticipation2017 Causal mechanisms Bhaskar identifies real causal powers with relatively enduring structures and mechanisms that are nothing other than the ways of acting of things [and these things] are complex objects in virtue of

which they possess an ensemble of tendencies, liabilities and powers(Bhaskar 1975:50-1) in (Elder-Vass 2010:45) #Anticipation2017 Eros processes that give birth to novelty Entrepreneuring Practices ways of acting (Fuller and Warren 2006b;

2008). #Anticipation2017 1) Experimenting: trial and error, lets see if it works attitude, is the creative process of assemblage, requiring considerable competence 2) The reflexive identity work: of the entrepreneur and the business is a powerful stabiliser 3) Organising is the everyday dynamic allocation and use of resources and the connections between them in patterns so as to be able to replicate and reproduce useful activities

4) Sensing: is, in short, the coupling with the environment mediated through many connections and senses Anticipation as causal mechanism We suggest that future value is anticipated through the interactions between the actors and mediated by the materiality of the ephemeral emergent. The causal power of anticipation comes from the motivation it generates amongst the actors to fulfil an absence, to address disharmony, to create, capture value or consume value. The interpretation by actors is shot through with emotional and sensational

experiences and actions #Anticipation2017 Anticipation is a causal mechanism in the process of emergence The natural disposition to anticipate can be causal Action Stability Instability Anticipatory Judgement of future

value #Anticipation2017 Anticipation prior to emergence and inherent in emergence process Anticipation, as a process, is prior to emergence (of some novel form of behaviour), and has causal effect on that emergence. Anticipation is processual and inherent in practising entrepreneurship (and probably more generically) #Anticipation2017

Case study Anticipating Technological Futures in Rural Enterprises #Anticipation2017 Research Question What pro-active explicit forms of anticipation are used by the small firm, i.e. what anticipatory work is undertaken by the SME? The ephemral emergent notion of Anticipatory work may be akin to Identity Work.

#Anticipation2017 Key findings Amazon/ Google algorithms Principals had not used business model as an explicit framework. Power over customers Their anticipatory work was located at the structural conditions bounding their enterprise:

Co-evolving Identity Envisioning the enterprise in different conditions #Anticipation2017 Focussed on relational dynamics Formulating new patterns or practices in relation to these actively testing and expanding boundary conditions.

Anticipation mediates knowledge and action Anticipation, we tentatively suggest, mediates between knowledge and action. The anticipation of value is a filter or evaluative construct to guide the interpretation of knowledge and to design, perform and evaluate actions and their effects. stabilise emergents (in this study, a business model.). #Anticipation2017 Anticipatory work in entrepreneurial contexts

Anticipatory work is a continual reflexive forming and reforming (encoding) of modelling relations via Modelling Coupling #Anticipation2017 Analogy Experimentation Contact Direct communications Anticipation as causal mechanism; The disposition to anticipate as

cause From a critical realist perspective, anticipation is a causal mechanism in the process of emergence. At the same time, the state of an anticipatory system: involving inferential logic, modelling relations and actions of effectors, is dynamic, emergent and inherently formative of emergent practices. #Anticipation2017 [email protected] @fullerfutures

#Anticipation2017

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