2015_Appliance_Standards_Presentation - BPA.gov

2015_Appliance_Standards_Presentation - BPA.gov

APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015 Overview Impacts Tools

Results 2 OVERVIEW 3 15 NEW MODELS 7 5 Residential

Non-Residential 3 Multi-Sector 4 APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes 45 STANDARDS 1,507 aMW (2010-2034) 6

IMPACTS 7 General Service Incandescent Lamps WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS? External Power Supplies 2008

Commercial Unit Heaters Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2009 Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures General Service

Fluorescent Lamps Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 2010 Incandescent Reflector Lamps 2011 Commercial Package AC and HP including Single Package Vertical Units

2012 Kitchen Ranges & Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Dehumidifiers Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts Electric Motors

Water Heaters Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Refrigerators & Freezers Clothes Washers Distribution Transformers Room

AC 2013 2014 2015 Clothes Dryers Small Electric Motors 2016 Microwave Ovens

External Power Supplies Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures 2017 Walk-in Coolers & Freezers Ice Makers

2018 2019 Furnace Fans 9 Market Pull and Demand Creation STANDARDS &

PROGRAMS INTERACT DOE Standards Emerging Tech Support 10 DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX Roll-Up Before

Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient

More Efficient New Standard 11 INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX Roll-Up Before Less Efficient More Efficient

New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard 12

PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS $1,600 $800 13 STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS Medium Screw Base A-Line Candelabra Base Reflector Lamps Par Lamps Other Exemptions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Wattage Range 14 STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND 32% Maximum feasible efficiency 35% 30% % Improvement Over 2014 Market

Baseline 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 3% Current Standards 0% Standard-size vented clothes dryers 15

TOOLS 16 MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized Templates Familiarity 17 MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES

Centralized Models Cohesion 18 MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Guides Usability 19

SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings 20 SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 400 Model Pre-Case Shipment UEC

300 200 Model Post-Case Shipment UEC 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

2032 2033 2034 Annual kWh Per Unit 21 SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption

Incremental Savings 22 FLOW STOCK 23 INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010 2006 2007 2008

2009 24 STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW Lifetime Shipments Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space Stock

25 SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings 26

Efficiency Distributions Product Class Distributions Usage Statistics Weighted Average UECs 27 ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK

28 INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER 29 NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30 INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS

31 INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32 RESULTS 33 SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW End Use Analysis Cycle Residential

Round 1 Round 2 Non-Residential Round 1 Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home Appliances Motors

Transformers Miscellaneous 34 RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar 201 5 Other 8% Heat Pumps

5% Freezers 5% Refrigerators 28% Water Heaters 54% RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar Other 12%

Freezers 202 0 5% Electric Furnace Fans 14% Refrigerators 24% Water Heaters 45% RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar

Other 5% Freezers 13% 203 4 Refrigerators 13% Water Heaters 18% Electric Furnace Fans 51% NON-RESIDENTIAL

Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar 201 5 Other 0% Electric Motors 2% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers

6% Commercial Washer 7% Distribution Transformers 85% NON-RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar 202 0 Other

5% Commercial Ref. Equipments 2% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers 15% Electric Motors 20% Distribution Transformers 58% NON-RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar

203 4 Other 1% Commercial Washer 1% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers 3%

Electric Motors 20% Distribution Transformers 75% UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar Small Electric Motors 35% 201 5 Battery Chargers 65% UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar

Small Electric Motors 36% 202 0 Battery Chargers 48% External Power Supplies 16% UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (aMW) Adjusted by Busbar Small Electric Motors 17% 203 4

Battery Chargers 31% External Power Supplies 52% CONTACT Carrie Cobb [email protected] 503.230.4985 Ben Barrington [email protected] 781.354.7070 Angie Lee [email protected] 415.356.7145

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